Iran is not holding elections
Theocracy and democracy cannot coexist, and the world media does the people of Iran a huge disfavor in purporting that they can
I’ve been working a 9-5 recently, so had a little less time & brainpower on my hands. Luckily enough, world keeps turning, and there’s plenty built up for me to be angrily righteous about. Iran is always a fruitful pasture for anti-religious tirades, so I’m hoping to ease myself back into these thought patterns with a softball.
There’s an “election” ongoing in Iran. It’s being covered by pretty much all major outlets, though somewhat overshadowed by the French clusterfuck as I write this. Still, CNN runs headlines like “Iran’s presidential election heads to a runoff” that I consider dangerously deceptive, even if caveats are offered in the article body.
Also, I’m maybe dealing with some personal stressors re: my future. So this post is… frustrated. I submitted a less frustrated version to the Columbia Political Review contest, but I think the frustration is valuable too.
0. The Iranian political system
Control in Iran lies with the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. He’s the head of state and commander-in-chief. He supervises the President’s ministerial appointments and appoints the Council of Guardians—a twelve-member clerical committee with sweeping powers to approve or deny political candidates, veto the legislature’s policies, and more.
This isn’t to say the position of President holds no authority. Ebrahim Raisi—the ultra-conservative “butcher” who last held the position functioned largely as a mouthpiece for Khamenei, but past presidents were far more influential.
Khamenei himself served as President before his appointment as Supreme Leader, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a name for himself in international diplomacy, tacking hard to antagonistic, anti-Western policy positions.
But Raisi was a puppet. An exceptionally cruel and brutal puppet, sure, but there’s no denying that he was little more than a helpful idiot for Khamenei. A dependable ally in the government’s second-most powerful position.
It’s likely the octogenarian was feting Raisi to be his replacement before the President’s unexpected death.
1. The crash
This all began when a poorly serviced helicopter1 crashed into a mountainside in northwest Iran, killing Raisi and seven other passengers. State TV broadcast widespread grieving, a public mourning period was declared, and condolences poured in from all the authoritarian corners of the world—from Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and al-Assad even to the likes of Narendra Modi.
The UN Security Council held a moment of silence for the Butcher of Tehran’s demise. Meanwhile, Iranians set off fireworks and the diaspora danced in the streets.
The world refuses to accept the true political situation of Iran: a deeply disgruntled population pleading for international intervention and the overthrow of the oppressive theocracy.
The UN hides behind some vague gesturing at ‘respect for sovereign nations’ and powerful Western countries release billions in Iranian assets, fail to enforce existing sanctions, and all but ignore the country’s ongoing weapons-grade uranium enrichment program.
While the world grieved Raisi’s well-earned demise, urged Israel not to retaliate against the Iran's massive, unprecedented attack, issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on shaky legal ground, and continued to levy poorly justified accusations of genocide against Israel—thousands of political prisoners continued to be tortured, raped, and killed in Evin prison.
What do we hear of it? Radio silence.
2. Election season
They’re clever, these global media conglomerates. Nothing keeps a news-addicted cash cow like myself on your site—seeing your ads—like election coverage.
After the EU contest came and passed and after the breathless coverage of Macron’s snap election announcement, what was left to report on but the search for Raisi’s replacement.
Outlets accurately reported on the hopeless authoritarianism of the candidate-selection process: just six candidates were approved from a field of more than 80, and headlines reflected this reality well.
The one reformist approved, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said he’ll defer to the Supreme Leader on all diplomatic matters (little hope for a cooling of tensions with Israel or the West, then). But he still represents hope domestically—which is just what Khamenei wants.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s World Democracy Index cares about five basic factors—one of which is “the extent to which citizens … can and do participate in politics.”
How better to inflate your numbers than put up a candidate that represents the probably-false hope of reform? Khamenei simply wants to encourage more than the paltry turnout Iran is used to. To keep the world’s accusatory eyes pointed at Israel, and the West, not his brutal postcolonial dictatorship.
Iran will not change fundamentally as long as a clerical council appoints a cleric who appoints another clerical council that controls every candidate list in the country. From city to province to national government, power lies squarely in the hands of religious leadership.
3. I can’t find the expiration date on this divine mandate
Theocracy doesn’t lend itself to peaceful transfer of power.
In fact, it doesn’t lend itself to transfer of power at all. Unless you can make a very compelling case that God started speaking to you instead of Rahbar Khamenei, any challenge to the real system of political power will find you in a Raisi-esque hanging court.
The fundamental principle of political sovereignty is that the citizenry consents to your rule. The tried-and-true theocratic strategy is to simply leverage a rule the citizenry already consents to—religion.
Eloquently represent yourself as a grand disciple, prove to be an effective leader, and roil up enough students to take an embassy hostage—and you’ve won yourself a state.
Not only that, but you’ve hacked into the basest compulsions of your diehard loyalists. Religion burrows deep into the brain. Attach your hooks to it, and so do you.
In a world of isolationists, Iran would be a fairly stable state. If it weren’t for the West’s embargoes and sanctions, the 90-million-strong country might look more like a well-centralized Turkey with a bigger army. (One forcibly void of any wistful hint of secular history as well.)
Luckily, we’ve introduced fragility. The West stopped buying Iranian oil, stopped selling Iran food, and froze its overseas assets.
It was this induced fragility that led to the Mahsa Amini protests. Brutalizing women is certainly abhorrent—and a strong trigger—but inflation and unemployment load the gun. Economic hardship is what gets people out on the streets, even when there’s a reasonable expectation of a lead-capped greeting.
Unfortunately, internal protest is far from enough. Lead beats posterboard.
4. Pacifism is a fine idea sometimes
Vietnam was a poorly-thought-out, culture-war-based, and terribly executed intervention. I won’t speak a word in its defense.
No one asked us to go into Afghanistan. We saw al-Qaeda as a threat (correctly), but misunderstood our objective, and half-assed installing a stable government. Withdrawing was probably the wrong idea, but I can’t say I don’t sympathize with those who supported it.
In Iraq, we had bad intel. If I thought there were WMDs, I wouldn’t have thought twice. And still, we were able to remove a brutal dictator. Again, though, the war was carried out with a fervor and dishonesty that undermined popular support for all interventionism.
Iran is a different animal though. This isn’t about communism. And I don’t need a full-blown war on terror.2 I just want us to do right by 90 million people who are asking for our help. I want to end the WMD program we know is ongoing.
Our obligation is to intervene.
But we tend to (rightly) hesitate when it comes to overthrowing democracies. So when CNN writes about Iranian elections, when the AP reports on the run-off election, it gives us pause.
Maybe the people can elect the reformist, we think. Maybe he’ll stop the killing.
But we know the truth. Pezeshkian will just defer to Khamenei. And if he doesn’t, he’ll be replaced. “Iranian election” is a phrase paradoxical to its core.
Still, any delay or uncertainty costs lives. It costs the dignity, freedom, and autonomy of millions of women living under a brutal gender apartheid.
We can’t afford to pause any longer.
Hooray for sanctions!
Though if you have conservative family/friends that are trending isolationist under Trumpian doctrine, feel free to construe it that way.