22 thoughts, speculations, and reflections on the Israeli strikes in Iran

Shit is, officially, going down

This is obviously all a developing story. Some information may be incomplete, unconfirmed, or flat-out incorrect. I finished this draft at around 04:00 EDT; I’ll probably try to edit it if it becomes clear I got something egregiously wrong.

---

1. Early Friday morning local time, the Israeli Air Force carried out more than 100 strikes in Iranian territory. They targeted nuclear sites, missile assembly plants, air defenses, top Iranian military brass, and even a couple leading nuclear scientists.

2. The attack appears to have been a resounding success, at least in terms of assassinations: Israel claims to have killed the Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces, and the regime has confirmed the deaths of his deputy and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.¹ Iran also confirmed the deaths of two nuclear physicists who Israel alleges were helping it construct an atomic bomb. One of the physicists was retired, having been injured in a previous (probably Israeli) assassination attempt: this suggests that the point of nuclear-scientist-killing is mostly to deter possible-future-scientists, not to incapacitate current ones.

3. The strikes on military and nuclear facilities were maybe more of a mixed bag: a primary target was the Natanz nuclear enrichment site, and Iranian state TV confirmed it was “hit several times.” But Iran’s report to the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated that there had been no increase in radiation levels nearby as a result. I don’t totally know what to make of this—it seems like if you were to bomb an actively-in-use enrichment facility, some radioactive material would be released, right? Either the regime is lying (quite likely), I’m misunderstanding something (even more likely), or the attack on Natanz was less debilitating than Israel had hoped (possible). For their part, Israeli officials believe the site was “significantly damaged.”

4. Regardless, the operation as a whole was certainly a success. If you’re going to attack nuclear enrichment facilities and missile-assembly sites, it’s good to maintain an element of surprise, which means you can’t really bomb anti-air infrastructure first. So, apparently, the first few waves of Israeli airstrikes were enabled by Mossad sabotage operations on the ground. Everything was run very well and smoothly; not a single plane was lost, out of more than 200 engaged in the attack.

5. So Israel did what it wanted to do. One question remains: What, exactly, did they want to do? Facially, this all is about the Iranian nuclear program—but Israel’s been agitating about a possible Iranian bomb for decades. So why attack now? In a prepared statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the strikes were a response to an imminent, existential threat:

   In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly-enriched uranium for nine atom bombs … In recent months, Iran has taken … steps to weaponize this enriched uranium. And if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.

6. In The Atlantic, Graeme Wood, while admitting Netanyahu’s claims were “nearly unverifiable,” seemed to buy his story. Wood figured that Israel’s recent successes in crippling Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis put pressure on the regime to develop a newer, stronger deterrent—an atomic bomb. If such a rushed nuclear effort were ongoing, Israel would, indeed, have good reason to strike now.

7. I’m a little more skeptical. Iranian power projection into the Levant reached a low point months ago, probably around the time Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated. One would imagine that Iran began rapid development of a bomb sometime closer to then (this would also explain how they have an incredible nine bombs’ worth of uranium now). So why wait to strike for so long?² Well, the one big difference between then—September 2024—and now is Trump’s accession to the presidency.

8. Trump has always been weirdly good at Middle East policy, so, as much as I hate to say it, I think a large part of what’s going on here is The Art of the Deal. The US has been engaged in nuclear-deal talks with Iran for a few weeks, and envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff had a meeting planned with Iranian negotiators on Sunday. At the same time, the US has been quietly shipping bunker-buster bombs to Israel, for use “should nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail.” These are the kinds of huge, penetrating warheads you’d need to use to do real damage to Iran’s mostly-underground nuclear sites.

9. In the immediate aftermath of the operation, Marco Rubio made a statement distancing the US from the strikes. He called it a “unilateral action” by the Israelis, and warned Iran against attacking US forces in retaliation. And then Witkoff leaked to the press, that, yeah, he’s totally still up for some Iran nuclear deal negotiations on Sunday.

10. Obviously this is all a harebrained ruse. Apparently, Trump’s negotiation strategy is to say very loudly, “NO, I HAD NO IDEA THIS VERY CLOSE ALLY WITH WHOM I SHARE BASICALLY ALL MILITARY INTELLIGENCE WAS GOING TO ATTACK YOU! BOY, THAT REALLY SUCKS! Anyway, you guys ready to hammer out a deal now? Say yes, or else my ally with whom I do not coordinate at all will probably attack you again, I guess!”

11. If someone like Biden or Obama tried to pull this crap, Iran would simply call their bluff, retaliate proportionally, and then trust that the US would back down and avoid further conflagration. But Trump is, to put it mildly, a totally crazy wackadoo! No one knows what he’s capable of! He might just escalate into a full-on war! Why not! The polling’s behind him; Americans are itching for another gulf war!

12. Incredibly, it looks like Iran is calling Trump’s bluff regardless. Their chief negotiator was (supposedly) wounded in the attack, their foreign ministry claimed that US “coordination and authorization” was necessary for the strikes to be carried out, and they eventually announced they were pulling out of the nuclear negotiations.

13. So what comes next? Trump and Netanyahu are gonna lay down their cards! I think a try for full-on regime change is far from impossible at this point. In Netanyahu’s statement after the attack, he spoke directly to the Iranian people:

    We do not hate you. You are not our enemies. We have a common enemy: a tyrannical regime that tramples you. For nearly 50 years, this regime has robbed you of the chance for a good life.

    I have no doubt that your day of liberation from this tyranny is closer than ever.

14. Here’s another possibly underemphasized element of all that’s going on: Israel named their operation “Rising Lion.” The Lion and Sun is a famous symbol of Persian nationalism and it’s often adopted by opponents of the Islamic Republic.

    

    “Rising Lion” is probably a subtle nod toward this symbolism. Israel (alongside the US) is threatening the Ayatollah with regime change unless he submits to a restrictive nuclear deal. In fact, speaking to the anti-regime outlet Iran International, an Israeli security official said as much explicitly: “Iran can either sign an agreement or face ongoing attacks that will endanger the stability of its regime.”

15. If all that is true—and I really think it is—then Trump is, in fact, continuing to amaze me with his competence in Middle East policy. It maybe gets even better: Iran is, of course, counterattacking, and it’s likely that a few missiles will penetrate Israeli air defenses, which is bad and scary. But before they shooting any missiles, they launched around 100 drones. And it appears that, in tacit cooperation with the IDF, Jordan’s air force shot down a number of these drones over its airspace. This is very exciting! If you allow me to be a bit overly optimistic for a moment, it implies there might be room for the continuation of the Abraham Accords—Israeli normalization with more Arab states, and a general regional realignment against Iran.

16. In fact, I had a dream—a beautiful dream—in which the following transpired:

    • Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia announced a secretly-negotiated deal to rule over Gaza with mutually-agreed-upon technocrats for a while, in exchange for the end of the war and release of the last few hostages.

    • Qatar blew its dumbass self off the map.

    • Israel normalized with everyone else, and a broad Middle Eastern coalition, with US support, began a precisely-targeted operation to destroy the Islamic Republic from the air.

    • Irregular Persian and Kurdish partisan forces began to form in the mountains of Iran, spreading to suburbs, then peripheral cities like Mashhad and Tabriz. Their leaders were aided by Israel and the US, and eventually took the capital, liberating thankful Iranians as they stormed through the countryside.

    • The Ayatollah was publicly… detained and imprisoned for life, and Iran became a flourishing democratic state. It used its nationalized oil reserves to maintain low, pro-growth tax rates, while building lots of infrastructure and generally abundance-izing the nation.

    • Cyrus the Great descended from heaven, blew up the entire Internet, deleted all the social media off everyone’s phones, and reintroduced niceness to the world.

17. Probably all of that will happen. But even if some of it doesn’t, I actually don’t feel so extremely worried about the future of the Middle East. Even though everyone’s interests are totally perverted—Trump is just trying to do one goddamn thing right; Netanyahu wants an excuse to avoid voting on the Haredi-conscription-exemption bill which would tear his coalition apart—the execution of the attack was so impeccable, it naturally inspires confidence. Israeli opposition leaders, who’ll generally beat up on Netanyahu for basically any reason, have commented quite favorably on the strikes:

    “Israel executed a first-rate strategic operation tonight. In this historic hour, we stand united behind the defense establishment, and I want to send strength to the political leadership,” wrote Benny Gantz, a major Netanyahu rival.

18. If it isn’t obvious by this point, I have fairly Zionist and hawkish tendencies. But I want to be careful to maintain the right mood in the context of war and destruction. All of this is genuinely very tragic. It’s tragic that the Iranian regime has repressed its people for so long, and it’s tragic that they’ve come so much closer to developing an atomic bomb. It’s also tragic that innocent Iranian civilians lost their lives when Israel attacked scientific and military leaders in their homes. And the inevitable Israeli casualties from an Iranian retaliation are tragic too.

19. War is usually very unpleasant. Israel is planning to make this a multi-day operation, and the US is struggling to put together the same kind of regional coalition that repelled Iran’s last missile-strike on Israel. The UK is already officially out. The real world is messier than my dreams, and regime change probably won’t be achieved anytime soon—instead, it’s likely that hundreds, maybe thousands, of civilians will be killed, and we’ll mostly end up back somewhere near the status quo. I think Trump’s Art of the Deal-ing will work out to some degree, and the eventual agreement will look a bit stricter than the old JCPOA.

20. All that said, I think it’s good to dream a little bit. To know what best outcome looks like, and to judge our actions based on how close they get us to that world.

21. And, frankly, even though it goes against the proper hawkish mood a bit, I think it’s straight-up good to have hope. I love Israel for weird, sentimental, quasi-religious reasons beyond the principled rational reasons that everyone has to love it. And as I write these words, with missiles and drones in the air en route to Israel, it’s breaking that the Home Front Command has lifted the order for Israelis to stay near bomb shelters. It appears that another covert Mossad operation knocked out many Iranian missile-launch systems before they could be used, and so the retaliation might not be as devastating as Islamic Republic officials had planned. I don’t think this is a miracle, per se—this is ingenuity, it’s careful planning, and it’s simply good news. It gives me hope; I’m glad it does.

22. One last little personal note: When I lived in Israel around five years ago—just for six months—I spent a few sleepless nights worrying about the Iranian nuclear program. I was a weird and nervous little kid, and I couldn’t stop thinking about the terrifying prospect of an Iranian bomb. How I and my whole family could be vaporized in a flash.

    If Iran really was closer than ever to building and weaponizing an atomic bomb yesterday—and it seems like they might’ve been—then I’m viscerally glad that Israel responded how they did. That is to say: I have strong emotional reasons to support the operation, so you should probably update somewhat against what I’ve said in its praise. Even though it really was quite awesome.

someone nasty was killed; someone not so nasty was killed.

1. The IRGC is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, but is, if anything, more powerful and influential. It’s a sort of do-it-all Deep State in the Turkish sense, on top of being the primary source of Iranian power projection abroad.

2. By the way, I wrote that Israel should’ve struck then.